“Nice country you got there. Shame if anything happened to it . . .” That’s Trumplomacy in a nutshell.

The rationale behind the flurry of tariffs and “deals” arranged by Trump since he got back into the White House can be dressed up to look a little more civilized than Tony Soprano sending his boys out to pick up their regular “envelopes”. But really, it’s much the same when push comes to shove, which it does.

The clearest explanation of Trumpnomics comes courtesy of one of Trump’s most trusted and influential advisers, Stephen Miran. Miran heads Trump’s economic advisory committee and has also recently scored a seat on the board of the US Federal Reserve.

Earlier this year Mr Miran spelled out his views and strategies in some documents and speeches that have been widely reported in financial circles. Here’s a link to the official White House briefing on Miran’s arguments. I recommend it as an interesting read, but warn that it is totally nuts. In his attempt to justify Trumpnomics, Miran turns reality on its head, puts history through a re-interpretive shredder and more or less channels Tony Soprano on behalf of Donald Trump.

The underlying idea is that the USA has for decades been the supplier of two valuable “global public goods” to the rest of the world. The first of these goods is US military power and the second is the US dollar’s reserve status. Military power lets the US act as the world’s policeman and the global role of the dollar is convenient for all the countries that use it when they trade with each other.

These great advantages that the US has enjoyed in the post-World War 2 era have certainly been major factors in making the world what it is today. But when Miran tries to flip these advantages around and present them as handicaps that the US has nobly borne for the benefit of the whole world, his argument descends into nonsense and never recovers.

According to Miran, the US “provides a security umbrella which has created the greatest era of peace mankind has ever known”. Surely his tongue must have been in his cheek when he wrote this. And this: ” . . . our men and women in uniform take heroic risks to make our nation and the world safer, preserving our liberties generation after generation. And we tax hardworking Americans mightily to finance global security.”

We don’t need to be Yank-bashers to observe that the US has been at war with somebody – usually somebody a lot poorer and weaker than itself – for almost all of its existence. If it hasn’t been directly attacking or invading then it’s been hard at work orchestrating coups and revolutions. There are mountains of evidence supporting the contention that – far from promoting peace – these activities have been almost exclusively aimed at benefiting US corporations, either by helping them access resources and markets or by denying those resources and markets to competitors. It is demonstrably true that the US actively profits from war. It has a military-industrial complex, for goodness sake, that thrives on chaos and conflict.

“On the financial side,” Miran continues, “the reserve function of the dollar has caused persistent currency distortions and contributed, along with other countries’ unfair barriers to trade, to unsustainable trade deficits. These trade deficits have decimated our manufacturing sector and many working-class families and their communities, to facilitate non-Americans trading with each other”. Actually, no. The US wanted its dollar to be the global reserve currency and it has benefited immensely from this incredible privilege. It has been able to get foreigners to finance its deficits year after year, decade after decade. Such a privilege is risky, of course, if you take it for granted and fail to exercise fiscal restraint. Such has been the failure of the US to exercise restraint that its debt now stands at $US38 trillion and interest payments now form a troublingly large proportion of its budgets.

As for the decimation of the US manufacturing sector, let’s be honest and admit that American corporations deliberately exported many thousands of US jobs in pursuit of higher profits. US corporations ruthlessly off-shored American production and services because other countries had cheaper labour, slacker environment laws, lower tax regimes and generous incentive programs. For the representatives and advocates of those corporations to turn around in 2025 and blame other countries for the consequences of US corporate greed is a towering feat of hypocrisy.

So now the US wants to rebuild its manufacturing, reduce its debt, maintain its military grip on the planet and keep its dollar in place as the global reserve currency. Realising all the benefits it has derived from its postwar empire are in danger of slipping away, it is using the perverse argument of “burden-sharing” to extort money from everybody else. As if the rest of the world had not already been carrying a big share of the burden of the empire. Helpfully, Miran has spelled out exactly how other countries can step up and share more of the burden of helping the US dig itself out of the hole its greedy corporations and its own fiscal irresponsibility has put it in. In his own words:

“We need to rebuild our industries to project the strength needed to protect reserve status, and we need to be able to pay our bills to do so. What forms can burden sharing take? There are many options, here are a few ideas:

• First, other countries can accept tariffs on their exports to the United States without retaliation, providing revenue to the U.S. Treasury to finance public goods provision.  Critically, retaliation will exacerbate rather than improve the distribution of burdens and make it even more difficult for us to finance global public goods.
• Second, they can stop unfair and harmful trading practices by opening their markets and buying more from America;
• Third, they can boost defense spending and procurement from the U.S., buying more U.S.-made goods, and taking strain off our servicemembers and creating jobs here;
• Fourth, they can invest in and install factories in America.  They won’t face tariffs if they make their stuff in this country;
• Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.

Donald Trump has taken this all very much to heart and it’s clear that his brand of “diplomacy” directly serves these goals. Everywhere he goes he presents this list and demands some form of tribute under each heading. First there are tariffs on everybody, with extra high tariffs on those who attempt to retaliate. Next, those same countries are expected to eliminate barriers to US goods entering their own markets. Don’t like pesticides in your food? Bad luck. Shut up and eat what we make you buy. Want to protect your own industries? You’re undermining our ability to provide “global public goods”, so back off or find out what we can do if we get annoyed.

Trump has loudly demanded that other countries within the US Empire (that’s all Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK and Australia – for starters) increase their military spending as a proportion of their gross domestic product. We have seen these “allies” clamber to fall in line with Trump’s demands and the desired result of more lucrative orders for US military corporations is flowing as anticipated.

Many countries have also caved in to Trump’s demands to invest money in businesses and factories in the USA, as per Miran’s formula. And some have even agreed to merely “write checks to Treasury”.

One by one, the leaders of the empire’s vassal states have been called in to offer their tribute. If it’s not enough, Donny has stern words to say. If it meets the threshold then he smiles, shakes hands and says kind words about the kowtowing branch managers as they tug their forelocks on the way out the door.

Australia is a good case study, even though – as a junior vassal – it had to wait a while for its interview. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese certainly appeared to be coming from a position of disadvantage, what with the entire Murdoch propaganda outfit gunning for him on account of his being nominally a “Labor” leader. But when his time came he was able to shovel so much largesse into Trump’s lap that the president probably struggled to believe his luck. Given that China has been playing hardball with its dominance of global rare earth resources – critical for weapons and high-tech equipment – Australia’s pants-down-and-bend-over offer of access to its own undeveloped resources would have been super-welcome. Trump can stop talking about buying Greenland now. Here’s how the White House noted the agreement on its website:

Today, President Donald J. Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a landmark Critical Minerals Framework to unleash the potential of our abundant natural resources—a model for supply-chain cooperation globally.  

• The U.S. and Australian governments intend to invest more than $3 billion together in critical mineral projects in the next six months, with recoverable resources in the projects estimated to be worth $53 billion.
  • The Export-Import Bank of the United States is issuing seven Letters of Interest for more than $2.2 billion in financing, unlocking up to $5 billion of total investment, to advance critical minerals and supply-chain security projects between our two countries.
• The U.S. Department of War will invest in the construction of a 100 metric ton-per-year advanced gallium refinery in Western Australia, further advancing self-reliance in critical minerals processing.

As for defence spending, well, of course Australia is part of the global supply chain for the F-35 fighter and has been sending aircraft parts to empire golden-child Israel throughout its long Palestinian genocide. It’s also signed up for some new missile factories and is hosting even more US military than it already had been. But wait, says the White House, there’s more:

Australia committed to enhanced burden sharing and is making new defense investments that will bolster the U.S.-Australia alliance.

• Australia agreed to purchase $1.2 billion in Anduril unmanned underwater vehicles and take delivery of the first tranche of Apache helicopters in a separate $2.6 billion deal.   
• Since February, Australia has contributed $1 billion to the U.S. Government to expand and modernize the U.S. submarine industrial base, with another $1 billion by the end of the year.  Together, we are strengthening the Australia – United Kingdom – United States (AUKUS) trilateral security partnership to meet the challenges of tomorrow.
• Australia is investing significantly in its integrated air and missile defense capabilities, including $2 billion in U.S. companies, for its Joint Air Battle Management System.
• The U.S.-Australia alliance is securing munitions supply-chain resilience under Australia’s Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) enterprise, and building on streamlined export cooperation, which will directly support more than 200 manufacturing suppliers in Texas, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama.

Did you read that? Australia is writing “checks to Treasury” worth $2 billion this year to help the US build submarines. This supports my contention that Australia’s “purchase” of nuclear submarines really amounts to Australia paying for a couple of US subs which may or may not be based in or near Australia but which will definitely be under tight US strategic control. May I cheekily suggest that if a couple of submarines are eventually sent this way they be named “Prince of Wales” and “Repulse”? (Just a little history joke.)

What about access to Australia’s market for US producers?

The United States recently secured expanded access for U.S. beef in Australia and is committed to opening new markets for U.S. ranchers.

Like, Australia doesn’t produce enough beef of its own, right? Happy days for Australian beef farmers, not.

OK, but what about Australia investing in American enterprises, as per Miran’s list? What is Australia doing about that? I’m glad you asked:

• Australia’s superannuation funds will increase investments in the United States to $1.44 trillion by 2035—an increase of almost $1 trillion from current levels.
  • This unprecedented investment will create tens of thousands of new, high-paying jobs for Americans. 

Yep, so apparently Australian super funds are going to be directed to invest in the US. What if that’s not the best investment strategy for members? Suck it up baby, you are helping to pay for the “global public goods” that the US provides as a generous service to the rest of the world.

May I interest you in a small thought experiment? Imagine that China was making similar demands of its allies and trading partners. Would the USA be freaking out? Would the mainstream press be wetting its pants in fury? Of course. But that would be different from what’s happening now, right? Because China is our enemy. We are at (cold) war with East Asia. We have always been at war with East Asia, etc etc etc. Thanks for reminding me, Mr Orwell. And if our empire managers decide that war is the best way out of their economic mess then Australia has well and truly declared its hand. Just like World War 1, when Labor leader Andrew Fisher declared that Australia would back Britain “to the last man and the last shilling”.

Ah, empires . . . can’t live with them, can’t live without them. Apparently.

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